V0.0.34: How Demographics Determine Party Popularity

V0.0.34: How Demographics Determine Party Popularity

The Coalition System

Every region in StateOS has different groups of voters called coalitions. Think of coalitions as voting blocs - groups of people who tend to vote similarly based on where they live, their age, education, and values.

The Five Demographic Dimensions

Each coalition is defined by five demographic characteristics:

1. Location - Where they live

• [c]urban[/c] - City centers (70%+ urbanization)

• [c]suburban[/c] - Suburbs and small cities (30-70% urbanization)

• [c]rural[/c] - Countryside and small towns (<30% urbanization)

• [c]mixed[/c] - Can be found anywhere

1. Age - Life stage

• [c]young[/c] - 18-35, students and young professionals

• [c]middle_aged[/c] - 35-55, established workers and parents

• [c]senior[/c] - 55+, retirees and empty-nesters

1. Education - Academic background

• [c]primary[/c] - Elementary education only

• [c]high_school[/c] - High school diploma

• [c]some_college[/c] - Some college, no degree

• [c]college[/c] - Bachelor's degree

• [c]graduate[/c] - Master's or higher

1. Occupation - What they do

• [c]professional[/c] - White collar (lawyers, doctors, engineers)

• [c]working_class[/c] - Blue collar (factory workers, tradespeople)

• [c]business_owner[/c] - Entrepreneurs and managers

• [c]farmer[/c] - Agricultural workers

• [c]service[/c] - Retail, hospitality, gig workers

• [c]public_servant[/c] - Government employees

• [c]retired[/c] - No longer working

• [c]student[/c] - Still in education

1. Culture - Values and identity (optional)

• [c]traditional[/c] - Religious, family-oriented

• [c]cosmopolitan[/c] - Urban, internationally-minded

• [c]nationalist[/c] - Strong national identity

• [c]progressive[/c] - Social change advocates

• [c]solidarity[/c] - Union and worker solidarity

• And many more...

How Demographics Shape Coalition Size

When the game generates a region, it calculates how much of each coalition exists based on the region's actual demographics.

The Base Formula:

Adjusted Size = Base Size × Location Multiplier × Age Multiplier

Location Multiplier Example:

• Urban Progressives have [c]location: urban[/c]

• If a region has 80% urbanization: multiplier = 80/50 = 1.6×

• If a region has 20% urbanization: multiplier = 20/50 = 0.4×

Age Multiplier Example:

• Young Socialists have [c]age: young[/c]

• If a region has 35% young voters: multiplier = 35/25 = 1.4×

• If a region has 15% young voters: multiplier = 15/25 = 0.6×

Practical Example - San Francisco vs. Rural Mississippi:

After calculation, all coalition sizes are normalized to sum to 100%.

The Dynamic Weight System

Not all demographics matter equally everywhere. The game calculates dynamic weights based on what makes each region unique:

Weight Categories:

• Ethnicity Weight (0.12 - 0.55) - How much ethnic background drives voting

• Education Weight (0.15 - 0.45) - How much education level matters

• Age Weight (0.10 - 0.30) - How much generation gaps matter

• Industry Weight (0.08 - 0.40) - How much local economy matters

How Weights Change By Region Type:

What This Means:

• In majority-African counties in the Deep South, ethnicity is the dominant factor (0.55 weight)

• In rural farming communities, industry is the dominant factor (0.40 weight) - farmers vote as farmers

• In educated suburbs of major cities, education is the dominant factor (0.30-0.45 weight) - college grads cluster together

Ethnic Affinities

Each coalition has specific ethnic affinities that boost or penalize its size based on the local population.

Examples from the code:

Rural Conservatives get boosted by:

• German American: +2.0

• Irish American: +2.0

• Norwegian American: +2.2

• Cuban American: +2.5

Rural Conservatives get penalized by:

• African American: -2.0

• Mexican American: -1.0

• Puerto Rican: -1.2

Urban Liberals get boosted by:

• African American: +2.0

• Hispanic American: +1.2

• Puerto Rican: +1.4

Industrial Social Democrats (Germany) get boosted by:

• Turkish German: +4.0

• Syrian German: +3.5

• Polish German: +2.0

• Greek German: +2.0

Bavarian Conservatives (Germany) get boosted by:

• German: +3.0

Bavarian Conservatives get penalized by:

• Turkish German: -1.5

• Syrian German: -1.5

This means a county with 30% African American population will have a much larger Urban Liberal coalition and a smaller Rural Conservative coalition than the raw demographics would suggest.

Industry Contributions

Local industries boost certain coalitions:

Example: A county dominated by oil and gas will have boosted Resource Sector Workers coalition (Canada) or Working Populists (USA).

Location Penalties

Coalitions get penalized when they're in the wrong place:

Example: Urban Progressives in a 40% urban area get a 0.57× penalty (40/70 = 0.57).

Coalition Modifiers (Runtime)

Beyond demographics, each coalition instance has runtime modifiers:

1. Volatility (0.15 - 0.50) How much this coalition swings between elections.

• Traditional Seniors: 0.15 (very stable)

• Red Wall Swing Voters: 0.40 (wild swings)

• Young Socialists: 0.45 (highly volatile)

1. Mobilization (0.0 - 1.0) How likely they are to actually vote.

• Starts at 0.5 ± 0.15 random variation

• Affects turnout and enthusiasm

1. Satisfaction (0.0 - 1.0) How happy they are with current politics.

• Starts at 0.5 ± 0.10 random variation

• Affects willingness to switch parties

1. Current Mood (-1.0 to 1.0) Short-term sentiment swings.

• Starts at 0.0 ± 0.20 random variation

• Responds to events and campaigns

Generic Coalitions (Used in USA)

Country-Specific Coalitions

Germany ([c]_de[/c] suffix):

United Kingdom ([c]_gb[/c] suffix):

South Korea ([c]_kor[/c] suffix):

Canada (various markers):

Putting It All Together: A Complete Example

Madison County, Mississippi:

• 45% African American population

• 25% urbanization (rural)

• 22% college educated

• 35% senior population

• Dominant industry: Agriculture

Step 1: Determine Dynamic Weights

• Moderate minority area (45%): Ethnicity=0.20, Education=0.25, Age=0.25, Industry=0.30

Step 2: Calculate Coalition Sizes

Step 3: Party Alignment

• Minority Democrats (25%) → 85% align with liberal/center-left parties

• Rural Conservatives (15%) → 85% align with conservative parties

• Traditional Seniors (18%) → 70% align with conservative parties

Result: Conservative parties likely win, but it's competitive due to the large Minority Democrat coalition.

Why This Matters for Gameplay

1. Campaign Strategy - Target coalitions where you can move the needle (high volatility, low satisfaction)

2. Regional Understanding - A county's demographics predict which coalitions exist and how they'll vote

3. Swing Voters - Working Populists (0.40 volatility) and Red Wall voters (0.40 volatility) are your targets for flipping regions

4. Safe Seats - Traditional Seniors (0.15 volatility) and Minority Democrats (0.15 volatility) rarely change - focus elsewhere

5. Country Differences - Germany's coalition landscape (CSU base, Industrial SPD, Greens) plays very differently from Korea's regional divide (Gyeongsang vs Jeolla)