Dev Diary 181 - Natural Disasters

When considering the success rate of medieval rulers, we often consider how cleverly they played important factions against each other, how they picked the right time and place to lead their armies to victory, and in Crusader Kings terms, how they managed their dynasty's blood through setting up capable successors and arranging the right marriages. But another important factor is how they respond when disaster strikes. When the unthinkable happens, will you be prepared or caught short? Will you be able to look after your people with the selfless care your crown demands, or will someone else swoop in and seize the opportunity to demonstrate their own benevolence? Will you stand tall, or will you have to cash in all your goodwill and sell your soul to restore control over your provinces?

These are the signs of a skillful ruler we're challenging you to display with the Natural Disasters feature.

[An illustration of the impact of a Natural Disaster on the people of the realm]

Famously, the devastating Huang He (Yellow River) floods in the 11th-12th centuries not only inflicted casualties to the tune of hundreds of thousands lives lost, but also undermined the Song dynasty's ability to fund defenses against the Jurchens and Mongols. And the Huang He was not content with contributing only to the fall of the Song dynasty - in the 14th century, when China had fallen to the Mongols and was ruled by the Yuan dynasty, it flooded again, precipitating the famine and revolts that eventually gave rise to the Red Turban rebellion and the subsequent rise of the Ming dynasty. The scope of devastation inflicted by floods and earthquakes upon China was enormous, and directly tied to the people's view of how suited they were to hold the Mandate of Heaven.

But calamity is indiscriminate - it can happen to anyone, anywhere. The Rhine flooded frequently, causing difficulty for local princes and townships in the Holy Roman Empire. The Aleppo earthquake of 1138, which may have claimed over 200,000 lives, weakened Muslim states in the Levant and served as a temporary boon for the Crusader states in the area - until the power vacuum paved the way for leaders like Nur ad-Din to emerge, who later became a central figure in resisting the same European invaders.

In designing this feature, we had to be careful to ensure that natural disasters shake up the political landscape of the region appropriately while not punishing players caught up in it through no fault of their own. True, natural disasters are by their very nature random, and there's not much even the wisest ruler - particularly in medieval times - can do to stop an earthquake or flood from happening. To address this we leaned into the governance aspect of natural disasters - how do you respond to a calamity occurring in your realm?

To illustrate this, let me take you on a bit of a journey.

The year is 1081, and Caliph al-Majid "The Trickster" rules the Fatimid Sultanate, freshly crowned at a mere 34 years of age after the untimely death of his father, claimed before his time by a mild tickle in his throat. All is well in the realm, were it not for my unceasing war against Emir Hussain "the Priest-Hater" of the Hashimid Emirate and his godless supporters, and the 627 issues Errorhoof is screaming about on this debug build. Life is pretty good in